May 10
Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Noem's story is far from normal.
May 08, 2024Is it still the economy, stupid?
In a new series, we look back at political wisdom from past campaigns.
May 08, 2024Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
May 07, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
May 10
Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet
After a terrible year, she's one win away from a House seat for life.
May 10
May 09
What are the odds of a Trump win this November?
The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?
May 09
May 09
What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?
The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the test.
May 09
May 09
Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain events this election season.
May 09
May 08
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Noem's story is far from normal.
May 08
May 08
Is it still the economy, stupid?
In a new series, we look back at political wisdom from past campaigns.
May 08
May 06
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says poll shows he could beat Trump
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask if a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling.
May 06
May 06
Will Biden's handling of Gaza impact the 2024 election?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into how campus protests over the war in Gaza could shape Americans' votes this fall.
May 06
May 06
Youth polling shows Israel-Hamas war is not a top issue for 2024 election
538 Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley breaks down which issues are most important to America’s youth.
May 06
May 06
5 primaries to watch in Indiana
An indecisive Republican representative could lose renomination.
May 06
May 03
Young people disapprove of Biden’s Israel policy. It may not mean much for November.
Despite campus protests, young people say other issues are more important.
May 03
May 03
538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote
538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton joins the podcast to break down a new algorithm built to cluster House members into “quiet caucuses” based on their voting trends.
May 03
May 02
How voters view the economy depends on their politics — and personal lives
538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
May 02
Focus group shows voters are down on the economy
538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
May 02
How Trump's hush money trial is affecting his standing in the polls
538’s Galen Druke discusses how voters are reacting to the former president’s criminal trial.
May 02
May 02
How Trump's trial is (not) changing the polls
Plus, the latest polling on campus protests and marijuana legalization.
May 02
May 01
The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House
We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses.
May 01
April 30
Voters don't like Biden's economy — but why?
In focus groups, we asked undecided voters about their views on the economy.
April 30
April 29
Judge has few options to address Trump’s alleged gag order violations
Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the latest developments in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
April 29
Trump’s Jan. 6 trial might not start anytime soon
Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss how the Supreme Court could rule on presidential immunity.
April 29
April 29
Who could testify at Trump’s trial this week?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth discusses what comes next in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
April 26
Democratic divisions over Israel aren't guaranteed to sink The Squad
But pro-Israel donors and personal scandals could present hurdles for some.
April 26
April 25
538's new polling averages show close presidential race
The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live!
April 25
April 25
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally
How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25
April 25
How (most of) our polling averages work
An explanation of the methodology for most of 538's current polling averages.
April 25
April 24
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally
How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 24
April 23
Are Mike Johnson’s days as House speaker numbered? | 538 Politics Podcast
After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan.
April 23
April 22
4 House primaries to watch in Pennsylvania
The Keystone State will set the table for a slate of key elections this fall.
April 22
April 18
In Trump trial, jury selection is part politics | 538 Politics Podcast
The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial.
April 18
April 16
The political stakes of Trump's hush money trial
How this trial could impact the 2024 campaign.
April 16
April 11
What's up with the kids these days?
Young voters showed up for Biden in 2020. Will they in 2024?
April 11
April 09
Tim Scott is the leading Trump VP contender
Plus, the solar eclipse polling you thought you knew.
April 09
April 04
Where will people commune in a godless America?
Religious decline has happened fast. It means fewer places for connection.
April 04
April 02
The presidential election has become an unpopularity contest
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both underwater in the polls with the American public.
April 02
March 28
Are US politics undergoing a racial realignment? | 538 Politics Podcast
Some voters of color are challenging traditional voter alliances.
March 28
Suggested Interests
